La prédiction de la récidive sexuelle, violente et criminelle chez les agresseurs de femmes adultes et d'enfants
Abstract (summary)
The most common method to assess the level of risk that represent a sexual offender is the use of actuarial assessment tools. This study aims at widening the scope of knowledge surrounding sexual recidivism. On the one hand, this study verified the capacity of two risk level assessment tools to differentiate the recidivists from the non-recidivists; the Static-99 and the Stable-2007. On the other hand, this study focused on the predictive value of the participation in a treatment program based on a cognitive-behavioral approach.
For the purpose of this study, 260 sexual offenders were studied for a period of 56.94 months. In total, 6.5% of the participants have committed a new offence of sexual nature, 15% have committed a new offence of violent nature, and 39.6% have committed a new criminal offence altogether.
This study reveals that the tools are unable to predict sexual recidivism. The Static-99 has permitted the prediction of violent recidivism, and the same can be said of the combination of the Static-99 and the Stable-2007. However, the latter has only been able to demonstrate a tendency towards the prediction of violent recidivism. Both tools, as well as their combination, have been effective in identifying recidivists and non-recidivists. This study also shows the treatment's ability to predict violent and criminal recidivism. In the case of sexual recidivism, the results do not lead to the conclusion that the completion of treatment is associated with a lower rate of recidivism.
It is proposed that the use of Static-99 and Stable-2007 be maintained in the evaluation of sexual offenders registered at C.É.R.U.M. In addition, the results support the conduct in the community of the treatment of sexual offenders who present a high level of risk.
Keywords: sexual offender, sexual recidivism, risk assessment, Static99, Stable-2007, treatment.