Uncertainty and delay in the game of blackjack

The effects of uncertainty of outcome and delay to outcome were investigated utilizing hit and stay decisions of players in the game of blackjack.

First, an observational study was done at a local 'Las Vegas Nite' and then a series of studies (6) were performed in the laboratory. It has been shown that experienced blackjack players, gambling in a casino with their own money, tended to stand (not request additional cards) when the odds favored hitting (requesting additional cards in order to improve their hand total). Additionally, it has been shown that people tend to prefer delayed large losses to more immediate small losses. This led to the notion that players far from the dealer whose hands were dealt first, with long delays between choices and outcomes, would tend to stand more than players close to the dealer, with short delays between choices and outcomes. It was thought that players with a history of losses (casino gamblers and several manipulations in the studies) would prefer more uncertain outcomes than players without such a history.

The dominant choice at the Las Vegas Nite and all the studies, except the last, was to over hit. So, a tendency to hit when the odds favored standing, was found with relatively inexperienced blackjack players gambling in the laboratory with money given to them by the experimenter. An argument is made that the Las Vegas Nite players were also relatively inexperienced. The subjects in the last study were inveterate blackjack players and, although they played in the lab with the experimenter's money, tended strongly to over stand. No effect was found for position or delay.

The results support the position that: (1) decision research is best performed in naturalistic settings where real losses can be incurred and meaningful delays experienced, and (2) that human choice behavior is adequately modeled in the animal lab, especially when the context is loss because in animal experiments the subjects necessarily 'gamble with their own money' and meaningful delays can be produced.